A distinctly unsettled ‘autumnal’ theme will remain dominant in the forecast this week.
This week’s repeating pattern of blustery showers will break for a time over the weekend, bringing many a drier day on Saturday. However, there is continued uncertainty stemming from the interaction of two successive tropical cyclones and how they will affect weather patterns in our sector of the Atlantic.
Paul Gundersen is a Met Office Chief Forecaster. He said: “The influence of low pressure – with associated thunderstorms and bouts of heavy rain – will continue to dominate this week, especially on Friday. Though the low pressure will finally move eastwards on Saturday, meaning that many will have a dry day with some sunshine.
“There is a risk of potentially very heavy rain for a time on Friday for eastern and north-east England and southern Scotland. Adding in the risk of thunderstorms – which could bring gusty winds and heavy downpours where they form – many can expect an unsettled week.
“During autumn, forecasters have the added complication of trying to estimate the impacts of ex-hurricanes when they work their way into the North Atlantic. Although the cooler conditions outside of the tropics cause them to decay quickly, they can bring disruption to weather patterns by bringing lots of moist and relatively warm air which often becomes entrained within other home-grown weather systems.”
There are two systems currently in the North Atlantic which have the potential to affect the UK’s weather. Hurricane Danielle is expected to weaken and veer towards mainland Portugal. The second system, hurricane Earl, is expected to remain across the western Atlantic during the next four days but will impact the downstream weather pattern influencing the UK.
Jason Kelly is a Met Office deputy chief forecaster. He said: “Hurricane Danielle is decaying at present and its influence will weaken. Meanwhile, Hurricane Earl is expected to become a major hurricane over the next few days. Whilst it is very unlikely to get directly involved in the UK weather, variations in the potential direction of travel will have a profound effect on the forecast. Heavy rain is expected to arrive in the west from Sunday, but quite how quickly that arrives will be dictated by the movements of Hurricane Earl over the coming days.”
With more unsettled weather across the UK through the week, it’s important to keep up-to-date with the latest forecast and any severe weather warnings for your area. You can check the latest forecast on our website, by following us on Twitter and Facebook, as well as on our mobile app which is available for iPhone from the App store and for Android from the Google Play store. Keep track of current weather warnings on the weather warning page.